Currently, the memory chip market, especially DDR4 memory, is indeed still experiencing tight supply and shortages, with prices continuing to rise. Below, I have provided a table to help you quickly understand the current situation of major memory chips:
|
Memory chip type |
Current status |
Main influencing factors |
|
DDR4 memory |
Severe shortage, with prices continuing to rise sharply |
Prices have continued to rise sharply. Original manufacturers have shifted their production capacity to DDR5 and HBM; the demand for AI servers and data centers is strong; some manufacturers have withdrawn their production capacity. |
|
DDR5 memory |
Supply is relatively stable, but demand is increasing and prices may rise in the fourth quarter. |
Benefiting from the demand shift caused by the shortage of DDR4; AI applications drive long-term demand and prices may rise in the fourth quarter |
|
NAND Flash |
In some sectors (such as enterprise-level SSDs), supply is becoming tight and prices are moving into an upward trend with price increases. |
The effectof factory production cuts has become apparent; the demand for large-capacity SSDs in AI data centers has exploded. |
Why is there a shortage and price increase?
This is mainly the result of the joint effect of the supply side and the demand side.
1. Supply-side active contraction and structural adjustment: Major global memory chip manufacturers (such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron) have continuously reduced capital expenditures on traditional memory chips and have shifted more production capacity from traditional DDR4 and low-capacity NAND to more profitable DDR5, HBM (high-bandwidth memory), and more advanced NAND products (such as 176-layer or higher 3D NAND). This has led to a significant decline in the production capacity of "mature" products like DDR4.
2. Demand-side continuous strength:
· AI and data centers drive: This is the core engine of current demand. AI servers (such as those equipped with NVIDIA H100, GB200, etc.) have a much higher demand for memory (whether DDR5 or still widely used DDR4) and storage (large-capacity enterprise-level SSDs) than traditional servers. Data centers are being built all over the world, especially AI data centers, which has driven the demand for large-capacity storage.
· Other demand recovery: At the same time, demand in consumer electronics, PC, and other fields is gradually recovering, further exacerbating the supply shortage situation.
3. The peculiar phenomenon of "generation inversion": Due to the excessive reduction in DDR4 production capacity, while there are still a large number of devices (including many AI servers and existing data center equipment) that require DDR4 in the market, this has led to the phenomenon where the price of DDR4 is even higher than the newer generation DDR5. This is a relatively rare situation in the semiconductor industry, highlighting the severity of the shortage of DDR4.
Future Outlook and Procurement Suggestions
· In the short term: The supply shortage of DDR4 is likely to persist for some time. Some analyses predict that the supply gap for DDR4 may continue for three quarters, and the increase in contract prices may exceed market expectations. At the same time, the demand for enterprise-level SSDs is also very strong.
· In the long term: The demand and prices for storage chips are likely to remain relatively stable. The long-term trends of AI and data center construction, as well as the cautious attitude of major manufacturers towards capital expenditures, jointly support this judgment.
· Appropriate stock preparation: If your production heavily relies on specific storage chips (especially DDR4), and the demand is urgent, consider appropriately increasing the safety stock or signing a long-term agreement with the supplier to avoid price fluctuations and shortage risks.
· Evaluate technological transformation: In the long term, assess the possibility and cost of migrating the existing product line to newer technology platforms such as DDR5. This is not only a performance upgrade, but may also bring better cost benefits and supply stability in the future.
· Focus on domestic alternatives: In recent years, domestic storage chip enterprises have been making continuous technological progress, and have achieved breakthroughs in some fields (such as enterprise-level SSD and memory modules). If the requirements are met, consider including domestic storage chips in the supplier selection scope. Having an additional option may provide an extra layer of security.
The storage chip market is changing rapidly. Please pay more attention to the latest market trends. The demand for capacity SSDs has exploded.